Prime Cabinet Secretary Musalia Mudavadi has warned that Kenya is staring at a major constitutional and legal crisis that could jeopardize the 2027 General Election unless urgent reforms are undertaken through a national referendum.
Speaking during a press briefing to mark the festive season, Mudavadi said the country is already in constitutional non-compliance, noting that key timelines set out in the 2010 Constitution have lapsed.
“Twenty months into the 2027 General Election, there is a beckoning reality that 2027 is a ‘Referendum Moment’,” Mudavadi stated. “There is an imperative need for a constitutional review, 15 years after the promulgation of the 2010 Katiba.”
Mudavadi pointed to the failure to conduct a boundary review within the constitutionally required 8 to 12-year window, explaining that the deadline elapsed on March 6, 2024.
“Our Constitution demands a boundaries review every 8 to 12 years. We are now in a period of constitutional non-compliance,” he said, warning that ongoing litigation could potentially nullify the 2027 elections.
He further highlighted the census stalemate as a major obstacle, noting that the 2019 national census was nullified in Mandera, Wajir, and Garissa counties.
“You cannot have a boundary review without a valid national census,” Mudavadi said. “A patchwork census mixing 2019 data with a 2026 mini-census is a legal impossibility.”
According to the Prime Cabinet Secretary, structural bottlenecks within the Constitution also limit fair representation, citing Article 89, which caps constituencies at 290 despite significant population growth.
“Without a constitutional amendment, the IEBC cannot give high population areas the representation they deserve,” he noted, adding that some protected constituencies risk extinction without valid population data.
Mudavadi also flagged contradictions between the Constitution and the County Governments Act, which limits wards to 1,450, constraining equitable resource distribution at the grassroots.
On governance reforms, he referenced proposals by the National Dialogue Committee (NADCO), including entrenching the NG-CDF to shield it from court challenges.
“We must entrench the NG-CDF in the Constitution to prevent courts from threatening bursaries for our children,” he said, while proposing new funds such as a Senate Oversight Fund and a Ward Development Fund.
Mudavadi further called for the formalization of the offices of the Prime Minister and Leader of the Official Opposition to enhance inclusivity, and said a referendum offers a chance to finally resolve the two-thirds gender rule.
“A referendum in 2027 will give us an opportunity to finally solve the riddle of the two-thirds gender principle,” he said.
He concluded with a stark warning: “No valid population, no boundaries review, and hence no valid general election. We ignore this at our own grave peril.”
