The group stages for the 2025 Africa Cup of Nations conclude today with a high-stakes “Super Monday,” where calculations are just as important as the goals themselves.

While the continental giants have largely cleared their paths, the middle tier of African football is fighting for survival through the tournament’s unique third-place qualification metric.

The fight for qualification begins at 7:00 PM in Group B.

Today’s Battle for Survival: Groups A and B

Angola and Zimbabwe, both locked on a single point, are effectively playing for their tournament lives.

Angola faces a formidable Egypt side that has already secured top spot in the group.

For the Palancas Negras, a draw might keep them mathematically alive, but only a win (taking them to 4 points) guarantees safety.

Simultaneously, Zimbabwe must overcome South Africa (3 points).

If Zimbabwe wins, they leapfrog South Africa into second place; if they draw, they join the frantic scramble for a “best third-place” spot.

Later, at 10:00 PM, the tension shifts to Group A.

Hosts Morocco (4 points) have almost certainly done enough, but their opponents, Zambia (2 points), are on a knife-edge.

A loss for the Chipolopolo could see them eliminated today if results in Group B don’t go their way, while a win would see them top the group in a stunning upset.

The “Best Third-Place” Mini-League

Because AFCON features 24 teams, the four best third-placed teams advance to the Round of 16.

This has created a virtual league table where teams are competing against opponents they will never face on the pitch.

As it stands, the benchmark is set high:

• Mozambique (Group F): 3 Points (Finished)

• Sudan (Group E): 3 Points (Finished)

• Zambia (Group A): 2 Points (1 match left)

• Tanzania (Group C): 1 Point (1 match left)

• Angola/Zimbabwe (Group B): 1 Point each (1 match left)

With Mozambique and Sudan already sitting on 3 points, any team with 1 or 2 points knows that a loss today is almost certainly a ticket home.

Who is Safe?

While the bottom half of the table is in chaos, three teams have already turned the final day into a formality by securing their spots with perfect or dominant starts:

Egypt (Group B): The first team to qualify. Led by Mohamed Salah, who has scored in every match so far, the Pharaohs are the team to beat.

Nigeria (Group C): The Super Eagles have soared through their first two fixtures, displaying a defensive solidity that has made them early title favorites.

Algeria (Group E): After a disappointing showing in the previous edition, the Desert Foxes have returned to form, securing their knockout berth with a game to spare.

The Looming Knockouts

As the final whistles blow tonight, the bracket for the Round of 16 will take shape.

The winners of the “third-place lottery” will find themselves rewarded with daunting fixtures against group winners like Egypt or Nigeria.