The recent visit by President William Ruto to Kisumu may prove to be more than a symbolic olive branch to an opposition stronghold.
The optics surrounding the visit — particularly the visible closeness between Kisumu Deputy Governor Dr. Mathew Owili and President William Ruto during his visit, as well as the ODM stalwart Oburu Oginga during his visit a week earlier — have ignited fresh debate about the future of Kisumu’s gubernatorial race and more broadly, the dynamics of ODM politics.
For decades, Kisumu has been the ideological heartland of ODM: opposition-first, protest-ready, and firmly resistant to UDA’s political worldview. But politics, like rivers, change course when the terrain shifts. The growing comfort with which senior ODM figures are engaging the Kenya Kwanza administration suggests that the old binaries, government versus opposition are quietly dissolving.
Owili’s positioning is particularly telling. As Deputy Governor and now a gubernatorial contender, his proximity to both State House power and the Odinga political family signals elite-level consensus.
In Kisumu politics, such alignment is rarely accidental. It is widely understood that Owili has long enjoyed goodwill within ODM’s upper ranks and was previously viewed as an acceptable continuity candidate within the Raila Odinga political orbit.
What appears to be unfolding is a soft realignment within ODM, where pragmatism is overtaking ideological rigidity. The ODM–UDA cooperation framework at the national level is beginning to echo at the county level and Kisumu, once unthinkable terrain for such cooperation is now emerging as a test case.
This shift has serious implications for party zoning and nominations. If ODM is serious about political stability and maintaining influence within a cooperative national framework, then zoning the Kisumu gubernatorial seat in favor of a figure like Dr.Owili becomes logical. His candidacy offers continuity, acceptability to both ODM traditionalists and the national government, and insulation from internal party fractures.
However, this also exposes a tension within ODM’s base on whether his opponents within the party politics like Joshua Oron, Aduma Owuour, Tom Ojienda among others will join and support the chosen candidate. The danger for ODM now is not electoral defeat, but confusion within the party: What does ODM now stand for?
Still, Kenyan politics rewards proximity to power. Development narratives, resource flows, and political survival increasingly depend on strategic cooperation rather than perpetual opposition. If Owili indeed emerges as the de facto ODM candidate, it will mark not just a personal victory but a symbolic turning point the moment Kisumu politics formally entered a post-opposition era.
Whether voters embrace this evolution or resist it will define the next chapter of Kisumu’s political story. One thing is clear: the old rules are still holding, and ODM is quietly rewriting its playbook.
