A new opinion survey has revealed a significant shift in public attitude toward President William Ruto’s Broad-Based Government (BBG), with support soaring in the weeks following the death of former Prime Minister Raila Odinga.
However, the country remains deeply divided on the political arrangement that effectively rendered the official opposition ineffective.
According to the latest poll by Trends and Insights For Africa (TIFA) released on December 18, 2025, support for the BBG has climbed steadily this year, with the most dramatic jump occurring between August and November.
The data shows support rising from 29% in August to 44% in November, while opposition fell from 64% to 48%. Those with no opinion dwindled to 8%.
This November survey was conducted just weeks after the nation was rocked by the unexpected death of Raila Odinga on October 15 while receiving medical treatment in India.
The BBG pact, announced in March 2025, saw President Ruto champion Raila’s ultimately unsuccessful bid for the African Union Commission chairmanship.
In return, several senior ODM leaders, including MPs, were appointed to Cabinet, with more associates landing roles as Permanent Secretaries, ambassadors, and board members. This move dissolved ODM’s formal opposition role in Parliament.
With Raila’s death, the glue holding the complex alliance together has come under severe strain, exposing deep cracks within ODM and the Odinga family itself regarding the 2027 general elections, now less than two years away.
Internally, ODM is at war with itself. Cabinet Secretaries from the party, such as Opiyo Wandayi, Hassan Joho, and John Mbadi, have been emphatic that the party will remain in government until 2027 and back President Ruto’s re-election bid.
This position, however, is fiercely contested by a faction led by ODM Secretary General Edwin Sifuna, who insists the party will field its own candidates across all elective seats, including the presidency.
President Ruto, for his part, continues to publicly affirm the partnership. While attending the annual Piny Luo festivities yesterday, he reiterated his commitment to working with ODM to form the government again in 2027, in a direct appeal to the Luo nation’s political loyalty in Raila’s absence.
Further complicating the picture is the divided stance within the Odinga family. While some family members have maintained a cordial relationship with State House, others, including his widow Mama Ida Odinga, daughter Winnie Odinga, and brother Oburu Odinga, have sent conflicting signals regarding their support for President Ruto in the upcoming election, highlighting a lack of a unified family political script.
The BBG agreement was originally anchored on a 10-point agenda for national transformation. Proponents argue that its continued implementation justifies sustained support, while critics see it as a political maneuver that has undermined democratic accountability.
The TIFA report concludes that while the BBG is “no longer overwhelmingly rejected, it is not yet embraced,” painting a picture of a nation in a cautious political transition.
