Kenya Track Survey has revealed a highly competitive and unpredictable race for the Mwea parliamentary seat, with former MP Kabinga Wachira taking an early but narrow lead.
The survey, conducted between February 21 and March 18, 2026, sampled 5,434 respondents across Mwea Constituency through telephonic interviews, with a margin of error of ±3 percent at a 95 percent confidence level. It highlights a shifting political landscape defined by experience, incumbency, and a rising wave of youth-driven leadership.
Kabinga Wachira Wathayu tops the race with 34 percent support, driven by his deep-rooted grassroots networks, past performance in areas expected of a member of parliament and long-standing political structures within the constituency. His strong ties with farmer groups and irrigation stakeholders have further solidified his base in the agriculturally rich region, giving him an early structural advantage.
Notably, Kabinga is also gaining significant traction among young voters, who increasingly view him as a visionary leader focused on their future. His mentorship approach, accessibility, and emphasis on opportunity creation have resonated strongly with the youth, positioning him not just as an experienced politician, but as a bridge between established leadership and the next generation. This growing appeal among younger voters further strengthens his campaign and broadens his support base.
Incumbent MP Mary Maingi follows closely with 30 percent support, remaining a formidable challenger. Her position in office has enabled her to leverage development initiatives, including education programs and infrastructure projects funded through NG-CDF, creating a loyal base of beneficiaries. However, voter scrutiny on service delivery and unmet expectations continues to shape perceptions around her leadership.
CPA Susan Wangechi Warui emerges as a strong third contender with 24 percent support, signaling growing momentum fueled largely by her message of change, empowerment, and fresh leadership which has resonated particularly in urban centers. Despite this surge, her campaign still faces limitations in grassroots structures compared to her rivals. This is despite her early ground campaigns compared to others.
The survey also identifies 12 percent of voters as undecided, a crucial bloc that could ultimately determine the outcome of the race. This group is largely composed of youth and swing voters who are expected to make their decisions based on campaign visibility, messaging, and emerging political alliances.
The findings point to a race that remains too close to call, with each candidate holding a viable path to victory depending on turnout and campaign execution. Kabinga Wachira currently holds a slight edge, strengthened by both his established networks and growing connection with younger voters. Mary Maingi remains within striking distance, while Susan Wangechi continues to gain ground as the campaign period approaches.
With the 2027 General Election drawing closer, the Mwea parliamentary contest is shaping up to be one of the most closely watched political battles in Kirinyaga County, reflecting a constituency in transition where experience, performance, and the promise of future leadership are all in play.
