The National Intelligence Service (NIS) has issued warning that ongoing political protests in Nairobi may be infiltrated by radicalized terrorist groups seeking to strike Western targets and civilians in revenge for U.S.-Israeli attacks on Iran.
According to intercepted communications which NIS says it has shared with top security organs and select diplomatic missions, an “imminent asymmetric threat” aimed at using the chaos of anti-government demonstrations set to mark the anniversary of last year’s June 25 unrest as cover for terror attacks.
The chilling intelligence says in part:
“Our analysis indicates that hostile actors are planning to use explosives and Molotov cocktails to target police officers and vulnerable areas including diplomatic missions, operatives aligned with Iran or sympathetic to its cause are preparing to embed within protest groups. Their objectives: revenge strikes against U.S., Israeli, and allied interests—Kenya included.”
The country has since been placed on its highest security alert, with multi-agency teams operating round the clock to preempt threats and neutralize potential attackers. Airports, embassies, and public gathering spaces have received urgent reinforcement.
The warning follows a dramatic escalation in Middle East tensions, after U.S. President Donald Trump authorized airstrikes on Iran’s underground Fordow nuclear facility. Iran has vowed retaliation, and analysts say the East African nation’s close ties with both Washington and Tel Aviv put it at greater risk.
The statement shared further said: “Kenya is assessed as a soft target precisely because of our strategic alliances. The Norfolk bombing in 1980 taught us that foreign conflicts can spill blood on our own soil.”
The Norfolk Hotel bombing, which killed 15 Kenyans, was a direct reprisal for Kenya’s support of Israel during the Entebbe rescue mission. Today, the NIS believes Kenya could once again be “collateral damage in a global geopolitical war.”
Intelligence sources warn that Iran, unlikely to confront the U.S. or Israel in conventional warfare, may rely on proxies and sleeper cells an approach echoed by the likes of al-Shabaab in Kenya’s past.
Authorities are now conducting covert sweeps in major cities, tracking digital footprints, and coordinating with international cyber and intelligence agencies to thwart any coordinated attack. Police and intelligence agencies have also been briefed on the threat of cyberattacks targeting national infrastructure.
Nis further says in the statement, “We are urging law enforcement to adopt a full counter-terrorism posture These are not just political rallies anymore—they are potential operational zones.”
Meanwhile, the geopolitical storm is already hitting global markets. Brent crude has surged to $78.89 a barrel amid threats from Tehran to choke the Strait of Hormuz—a move that could decimate global supply chains and send Kenya’s economy into a tailspin.
Iran’s parliament has backed a measure to shut the strait, though Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei has yet to authorize it. Over 200,000 Kenyans working in the Gulf may also be caught in the crossfire if regional tensions escalate.
With history and geography working against it, Kenya is once again walking a tightrope between domestic political unrest and international conflict.
