The latest Kenya Track Survey has revealed early voter preferences ahead of the 2027 General Election, pointing to a competitive political contest for both the Nairobi Governor and Women Representative seats as key candidates begin to consolidate support across the capital.
In the gubernatorial race, current Embakasi North MP James Gakuya emerges as the early frontrunner with 44 percent support, giving him a clear lead over other aspirants. The survey attributes his strong performance to long-term grassroots organization and structured mobilization networks across several constituencies including Roysambu, Ruaraka, Kasarani and parts of Embakasi. His steady leadership profile and appeal to voters seeking stability and predictable governance continue to strengthen his position.
The currently Embakasi East MP Babu Owino ranks second with 28 percent support, supported largely by strong backing from youth and politically active communities. His influence is particularly strong in densely populated areas including Embakasi, Mathare and Kibra where his energetic and activist leadership style resonates with voters frustrated by inequality and governance challenges. However, the survey indicates that his support remains highly loyal but somewhat polarized among sections of middle-income voters.
Incumbent Governor Johnson Sakaja comes third with 18 percent support, with the survey showing that his incumbency advantage and constant visibility through county programs and public engagements provide him with a stable support base. However, service delivery concerns including traffic congestion, flooding in several estates, waste management challenges and the rising cost of living continue to shape voter perceptions and limit expansion of his support.
Businesswoman Agnes Kagure records 6 percent support, appealing mainly to professionals, entrepreneurs and reform-minded voters who favor structured governance and efficient county administration. Her technocratic approach and anti-corruption messaging resonate particularly with middle-income residents and business operators, although limited grassroots structures remain a challenge.
Former Principal Secretary Irungu Nyakera stands at 4 percent support, drawing backing from policy-focused and professional voters who prioritize economic management, digital service delivery and modern urban planning. His support base reflects growing interest among younger professionals and reform-oriented voters seeking competence-driven leadership.
In the Nairobi Women Representative race, Millicent Omanga leads with 36 percent support, benefiting from strong name recognition and sustained public visibility across Nairobi. The survey indicates that her organized grassroots networks among women and youth groups provide a significant advantage, allowing her to translate popularity into potential voter turnout across different sub-counties.
Gloria Orwoba follows with 27 percent support, with her advocacy-driven leadership and Senate experience appealing strongly to voters who prioritize accountability and effective representation. Her public positions on social justice, gender issues and institutional accountability continue to resonate particularly among professional and issue-oriented voters in the city.
Nominated Senator Karen Nyamu ranks third with 22 percent support, supported by strong digital influence and a loyal support base particularly among younger voters and social media audiences. The survey indicates that her ability to energize supporters gives her a dependable base, although her high public visibility also generates mixed reactions among undecided voters.
Tabitha Mutinda, another Nominated Senator, records 15 percent support, with her backing largely linked to empowerment programs, bursaries and community initiatives that have benefited women and youth groups across Nairobi. The survey suggests that while she maintains loyal pockets of beneficiary-based support, the highly competitive field presents challenges in expanding her reach across the county.
The Kenya Track Survey indicates that Nairobi voters remain strongly influenced by service delivery concerns including transport, drainage, waste management, housing, youth employment and the rising cost of living, while the Women Representative contest is shaped by visibility, advocacy strength, empowerment programs and grassroots mobilization.
With clear frontrunners emerging but significant voter blocs still in play, the survey suggests that the road to 2027 will be defined by coalition building, structured campaign networks and the ability to convert visibility into actual votes. In a politically dynamic and diverse county like Nairobi, even small shifts in alliances, messaging and turnout could ultimately determine who secures the keys to City Hall and the mandate to represent Nairobi women in Parliament.
