Nairobi Senator Edwin Sifuna has emerged as the leading opposition presidential aspirant in the latest Politrack Africa survey, while President William Ruto maintains a commanding lead in the overall presidential preference race.
The survey, conducted between September 15 and 25, 2026, places Ruto at 45.1 per cent, followed by Sifuna at 19.6 per cent. Wiper leader Kalonzo Musyoka comes third with 10.3 per cent, while 8.4 per cent of respondents are undecided. Fred Matiang’i records 7.2 per cent, followed by Rigathi Gachagua at 6.0 per cent.
The figures make Sifuna the highest-rated opposition aspirant in the poll, with his 19.6 per cent support nearly double Kalonzo’s 10.3 per cent. Matiang’i and Gachagua trail at 7.2 per cent and 6.0 per cent respectively. Other candidates polled below one per cent, including Martha Karua and David Maraga at 0.8 per cent each, James Orengo at 0.4 per cent and Jimmy Wanjigi at 0.3 per cent.
Ruto’s 45.1 per cent places him 25.5 percentage points ahead of Sifuna in the poll. The survey, however, also shows a significant bloc of voters yet to settle on a candidate, with 8.4 per cent undecided. The poll’s methodology involved 20,419 respondents across the country, with national estimates weighted according to each county’s share of registered voters. Politrack reports a ±3 per cent margin of error and 95 per cent confidence level.
The party numbers provide another notable feature of the survey. Ruto’s UDA leads party preference at 32.0 per cent, followed by the Democracy for the Citizens Party (DCP) at 11.7 per cent and ODM at 10.6 per cent. Jubilee records 6.9 per cent, Wiper 5.6 per cent, Kenya Kwanza 3.5 per cent and Azimio 3.2 per cent.
The survey also points to a divided national mood. 45.2 per cent of respondents say Kenya is moving in the right direction, compared with 44.6 per cent who say the country is moving in the wrong direction, while 10.2 per cent are unsure. Roads and housing receive the highest positive performance ratings at 16.3 per cent each, while health services/SHIF/SHA and the fight against corruption attract the highest negative assessments.
With the 2027 election still ahead, the Politrack figures represent a snapshot of voter preference during the survey period rather than an election result or forecast.
