President William Ruto is the most preferred presidential candidate ahead of the 2027 General Election, according to a new survey by Trends and Insights For Africa (TIFA) Research. The latest research however shows the race remains wide open with no single candidate commanding dominant national support.
The survey, conducted between May 2 and May 11, 2026, shows Ruto leading with 24%, followed by Wiper leader Kalonzo Musyoka at 19%.
Former Interior Cabinet Secretary Fred Matiang’i comes in third at 14%, with Nairobi Senator Edwin Sifuna fourth at 10% and former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua close behind at 9%.
TIFA noted that Ruto’s numbers have climbed significantly over the past year, rising from the teens in previous polls to 24%, while the undecided vote dropped to 15%. However, the research firm cautioned that the contest remains highly fluid.
“The 2027 presidential race remains highly fluid, with no single candidate commanding dominant national support. While President William Ruto leads at 24%, the findings show growing competition,” TIFA said.
Regionally, Ruto enjoys his strongest support in Northern Kenya at 48 per cent and Nyanza at 41 per cent.
Kalonzo dominates Lower Eastern with a massive 78%backing, while Matiang’i performs best in Nyanza at 27%t.
Gachagua’s strongest base remains Mt. Kenya, where he scored 23%.
On the ODM internal divide, the survey delivered a clear verdict.
A overwhelming 73% of ODM supporters back the Sifuna-led Linda Mwananchi faction, while only 24% support the Oburu-led Linda Ground camp that is aligned with the broad-based government arrangement.
TIFA said the numbers reflect a growing grassroots preference for leaders seen as holding the government accountable rather than working with it.
“ODM supporters appear to favour a more independent, people-centred opposition approach rather than closer cooperation with the government. The strong backing for the Linda Mwananchi faction suggests growing grassroots preference for leaders perceived as defending public interests and holding government accountable,” the report read.
