A new Electoral Vulnerability Index by the Kofi Annan Foundation has placed Kenya among the world’s highest-risk election environments, estimating an 84.1 per cent probability of electoral violence during the 2027 General Election.
The report, which identifies Kenya as one of ten priority countries flagged by the European Union during this election cycle, noting that the country has never gone through a single election cycle without violence.
Other countries that have been flagged by the European Union are Somalia, Burundi, Nigeria, and the Democratic Republic of Congo.
The country’s bloodiest episode remains the 2007-2008 post-election crisis, which claimed more than 1,000 lives.
But the years since have maintained their own violent rhythm, with unrest extending well beyond election periods into disputes over economic mismanagement and governance failures.
Since 2023, protests over finance bills, the high cost of living, police brutality, and fuel price hikes have left dozens dead, hundreds injured, and millions of shillings worth of property destroyed.
The report says these developments matter for 2027 not only because of what has already happened, but because of what has changed.
The death of opposition leader Raila Odinga in October last year left Kenya’s opposition without its most recognisable unifying figure.
The Foundation warns this could either produce a weaker and more predictable opposition, or trigger a scramble for succession that creates new political alliances the government has never had to negotiate with before.
“Odinga’s death has a double effect on risk. It may weaken a familiar opposition command structure and reduce the predictability of mobilization,” read the statement.
Combined with the public anger simmering over fuel prices, the cost of living, and unresolved killings, the report cautions that the 2027 election could become more than an ordinary political contest, it could also become a platform for citizens demanding accountability from the state.
Three institutions are identified as critical to preventing a repeat of past electoral violence.
On the IEBC, the report says the transparency with which voting technology is procured will determine whether Kenyans trust the results announced.
On the National Police Service, it warns that how officers handle protests and protect human rights will directly influence how peaceful the election season becomes.
On the Judiciary, the report points to the Supreme Court as a key stabilising institution, but cautions that this avenue will only hold if all parties preserve evidence and accept rulings, even when they disagree with the outcome.
