As the 2027 General Election draws closer, the battle for Nairobi’s top seat is rapidly taking shape, with businesswoman Agnes Kagure emerging as a formidable challenger to Embakasi East MP Babu Owino in a race that is increasingly tilting against incumbent Governor Johnson Sakaja.
A new opinion poll by the Centre for African Progress (CAP) paints a grim picture for Sakaja’s re-election bid, showing him trailing far behind his rivals with a modest 10 percent support.
The survey, conducted among 6,000 registered voters, also reveals that 80 percent of respondents disapprove of his handling of county affairs.
In contrast, Babu Owino leads the pack with 37 percent, closely followed by Kagure at 34 percent, signaling what analysts say could evolve into a two-horse race as campaigns gather momentum.
CAP Chief Executive Officer Onchari Oyieyo cast doubt on Sakaja’s chances of retaining his seat, noting that public dissatisfaction with the current administration could prove decisive at the ballot.
“The current governor has low chances of winning re-election,” said Oyieyo, adding that “there is a high chance that Nairobi’s governorship will be won by the opposition in the 2027 elections.”
Embakasi North MP James Gakuya trails with 7 percent support, while other potential candidates including Irungu Nyakera and Kasarani MP Ronald Karauri register minimal backing at 1 percent each.
Notably, 9 percent of voters remain undecided, a factor that could still influence the final outcome.
The poll also highlights shifting political dynamics within the capital, with the Democracy for Citizens Party (DCP), associated with impeached Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua, leading in party popularity at 24 percent. The ruling United Democratic Alliance (UDA) follows at 18 percent.
The findings come amid growing discontent among Nairobi residents, many of whom have voiced frustration over service delivery, governance, and the rising cost of living, issues that are now shaping the political narrative ahead of 2027.
With Kagure steadily closing the gap on Owino and Sakaja struggling to regain public confidence, Nairobi’s gubernatorial contest is shaping up to be one of the most fiercely contested races in the upcoming election cycle.
